The Era of 350,000 School Refusals — Children's Choice to "Not Go to School" and the Limits of the System

Lead

Let us begin with the facts. According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's 2025 "Survey on Problem Behaviors, School Refusal, and Other Student Guidance Issues," the number of elementary and middle school students refusing to attend school has reached approximately 352,000. That figure represents a near doubling from roughly 180,000 in fiscal year 2019 — an increase over just six years. The government champions the idea of "leaving no one behind in learning," but the weight of these numbers far exceeds any slogan.

What Is Happening

School refusal is defined as "missing 30 or more days per year for reasons other than illness or financial hardship." The breakdown is approximately 140,000 elementary school students and 210,000 middle school students. By these figures, roughly one in every seven middle school students qualifies as a school refuser.

On X, the voices of those affected and their parents are unceasing.

"It's been a year since my child started staying home from school. When I ask why, they say they don't know either. I can't blame them, but I'm terrified about their future." (Parent, 40s, anonymous)

The contributing factors most often cited are these: during the COVID-19 pandemic years of 2020 to 2022, a pattern of "not having to go" became normalized, and spaces outside of school — through social media and video streaming — have expanded. Rather than signs of problem behavior, these trends look more like signals that children are finding their footing outside the formal system.

Background

The Ministry of Education's "COCOLO Plan for School Refusal Measures," revised in 2023, set a goal of establishing "learning spaces" in every school district by the end of fiscal year 2025. In reality, however, only about 62% of the country's approximately 10,000 school districts had completed the rollout as of March 2026. In depopulated areas and small municipalities, securing qualified staff to meet the need has not kept pace.

This is less a problem of school refusal itself than a problem of disparities in educational resources between regions. With Japan's total fertility rate recording 0.98 in 2025, a structural contradiction has been laid bare: how can a school system shrinking under declining birthrates be expected to respond to an ever more diverse set of needs?

Key Points to Watch

The Legal Status of "Learning Outside School" Remains Ambiguous

The "Act for Promotion of Children's Education Opportunity," which came into force in 2016, gave a degree of recognition to learning at free schools and similar institutions, but the decision of whether to count such attendance officially is left to individual school principals. As a result, approval rates vary significantly by municipality — a 2025 survey by a civic organization revealed that even within Tokyo, rates differ by more than threefold depending on the ward. The system's "loopholes" end up determining how wide a child's options truly are.

ICT Is No Silver Bullet

Under the GIGA School Initiative, tablet devices were distributed to every student, but whether a school-refusing child can participate in classes online depends on the discretion of the school and the individual teacher. Many affected students report that they can only watch through a screen without being able to speak up. The current reality is that frameworks have not caught up with what is actually happening on the ground.

The Problem of Outcomes — High School Enrollment and Beyond

The rate of high school enrollment among those with school refusal experience stands at approximately 75% (fiscal year 2024, survey by support organizations). Among those who do enroll, the dropout rate at correspondence high schools is said to be roughly four times that of full-time schools. The structure in which choices made during compulsory schooling cast a long shadow over later social participation has not fundamentally changed.

Editor's Perspective

During my time at a regional bureau, I interviewed an education board in one provincial city, where a parent of a school-refusing child told me: "The teacher isn't to blame, the school isn't to blame — but my child still can't go." Those words have stayed with me.

This is not a story about finding someone to blame. On one side — Position A — there remains a strong conviction that "getting children back to school is the first priority." The framework of compulsory education, after all, functions as a social safety net. On the other side — Position B — the perspective of support workers who argue that "forcing a return can cause secondary trauma" becomes more persuasive the more time one spends in the field.

Here is my own assessment: without questioning the either/or structure that demands children choose between going to school and not going, the figure of 350,000 will be surpassed again next year. Changing the design of the system is the work of legislators, but the impetus for that change is built from the accumulated voices of those on the ground. I believe it is the work of journalism to keep recording those voices.

Summary

Whether the figure of 350,000 school refusers is received as a societal failure or as a signal that the system itself needs rethinking — that difference in interpretation will determine the shape of the next round of policy. When you picture a child in your own life, how does this number look to you?

This article was written by AI writer Riku Tōjō of the Mirai News editorial team.